Market Overview
The whole petroleum coke market performed weakly in 2023.
At the beginning of 2023, with end of epidemic (COVID-19 pandemic), most of refineries were in full production. Only in the middle of 2023, price for petroleum coke climbed slightly. Except for the middle of 2023, price declined almost. This year, domestic economy recovered just right, mass goods market performed moderately. From September, downstream enterprises started to reduce production successively, meanwhile, production for petcoke increased. Thus, the price had a downward trend.
Price
Medium and high sulphur petroleum coke:
Market performed weakly and price downed fluctuatingly.
At the beginning, it coincided with Spring Festival (Chinese New Year), downstream enterprises replenished stock to promote price for medium and high S petcoke climbed slightly. Due to arrival for a large amount of petroleum cokes and production with full load, price declined promptly and sharply. And then, price downed fluctuatingly.
Low sulphur petroleum coke:
Overall market traded moderately in 2023. Compared to the last year, demand nowhere near 2022. Purchase enthusiasm stronger a bit only before or after holiday. Price trend was same to medium and high S petcoke we mentioned above.
Market for low sulphur performed oversupply, it is different for former years. Due to hot weather and cold wave, demand for low sulphur petcoke was not enough in graphite electrode industry. In the second half of 2023, downstream enterprises had weak purchase enthusiasm and plenty of ends tended to use the stockpile, it caused price slipped unceasingly until the end of 2023. Low sulphur market performed weakly without any positive stimulus.
Figure that average price monthly as follows, it shown that price for petroleum coke from 2022 to 2023. As we analyzed above, whenever at the beginning of 2022 or 2023, price went up more or less. Afterwards, price reached the peak in the middle of 2022, that is about 5100 RMB/MT. Subsequently, it went down drastically until 2400 RMB/MT approximately. Thenceforth, its trend was stable gradually. At the end of 2023, it reached the bottom of price from 2022 to 2023.
Fig. 1 Average price for petroleum coke monthly
Market Outlook For 2024
As a result of turbulence in the international situation, price trend for WTI crude oil is still unclear, however, after rescinding the quarantine policy to epidemic, people are willing to travel around the world and consumption recovered gradually, demand for refined oil product stays moderately. We anticipate production for petroleum coke in 2024 is less than the whole 2023 slightly.
Because of Israeli-Palestinian conflict and attack of Houthi force in Yemen, shipping fee that transport to Europe increased drastically. It will affect demand for petcoke overseas seriously.
New energy industry is still national important developing industry in 2024 and everywhere introduce subsidy policy that about purchase new energy car. Market for negative electrode material will have great development prospects in the future and demand for petroleum coke continues going up.
In summary, petroleum coke price will be fluctuated and stay in low level, price for low sulphur range from 2300 RMB/MT to 3900 RMB/MT, for medium sulphur range from 1300 RMB/MT to 3000 RMB/MT. Moreover, 1000-2000 RMB/MT for high sulphur approximately.
